Erin Griffith

Last year, buyout and mezzanine funds officially raised $264.512 billion, according to the most recent Buyouts data. But how much of that went to emerging managers raising a first-time fund? So I sliced down the 2008 fundraising spreadsheet to show just the first-time funds. It’s a bit of a rough cut, but I’ve determined that, […]

Speculation is futile, this we know. But that won’t stop us from trying. Here’s a taste of predictions for 2009 fundraising numbers, from panelists at yesterday’s PEA Outlook Conference. First I’ll give you last year’s total: $266 billion. Now I’ll give you my prediction: $186 billion. I made this on January 1, and perhaps I was feeling hopeful for the new year, since the Dow was up. I’m now realizing that I probably need to make some revisions. And now, I’ll give you the expert predictions, and they don’t look pretty:

SBA: Obama's pick for head of SBA, Karen Gordon Mills, apparently had some unstellar results at Solera Capital. (Pro Publica) It's The Economy, Girlfriend: There is a support group for the girlfriends of bankers. They're suffering from the recession, too! Their blog, says the NY Times, bills itself as "free from the scrutiny of feminists," and invites women to join "if your monthly Bergdorf's allowance has been halved and bottle service has all but disappeared from your life." I don't even know what to say about this, except, ugh. (NY Times) H/T BB. Schwarzman at Davos: "The audacity of Stephen A. Schwarzman was not enough," writes Dealbook. He apparently jumped from his seat, grabbed a mic, and issued a call for "MORE LEVERAGE!" What? (Dealbook) The SEC Should Hire Journalists: Because we work for a pittance, basically. Thanks, Randy Shain! (Dealbook)

I want to share the lovely press release my colleague got today from PA SERS, the pension system for Pennsylvania State Employees. This is apparently what we reporters get to work with when nothing happens at a meeting. From: Gentzel, Robert Sent: Wednesday, January 28, 2009 4:46 PM To: 'Reporters covering PA SERS' Subject: no news release I don't have anything to announce out of today's meeting of the PA SERS Board, so I won't be issuing a news release. That's it. A "No News Release." Now, I'm unsure of the reason behind the dearth of activity at the meeting, (was everyone hungover from an office karaoke party?), but will speculate that the lack of new commitments at the meeting is further proof of a tough fundraising market. Joked my colleague: "Everything is so bad, I bet no one bothered to even go to the meeting."

When a corporation makes mistakes, the CEO resigns. When a PE firm makes mistakes, it cans portfolio company management. With all this talk of a PE firm shakeout, will the heads of firms resign? It doesn't seem likely. In fact, I am not sure that has ever happened in the history of private equity. The keyman provision and ten-year tie-up period make PE heads accountable in different ways than managers of public companies. When a firm messes up royally, the top dogs stick around. Yet today we saw the head of one of the largest PE firms in the world resign. Philip Yea, CEO of 3i, stepped down after news that the company's investments plunged 21%. The difference here, of course, is that 3i is a public company.

Looking Back: The top 50 private equity firms of 1999, as compiled by The Deal's David Carey. Interesting to see who made the top five... (Dealscape) Good News: The Private Equity Council has released a study that says: "Large private equity-backed companies substantially outperformed their industry peers in capital spending, sales and productivity in the years following their acquisition by private equity investors." Read the details here. Read a blog post by Reuters' Megan Davies here Davos Diary: Dealbook tracks the number of no-shows at the Davos Economic Forum. (Dealbook) Meanwhile: BusinessWeek says there are not enough women contributing to the Davos conversation. And Lastly: Kedrosky compares statements of Davos' speakers this year, to their words last year. (Infectious Greed)

There have been numerous mentions of that ubiquitous BCE study from late December here at PEA. You may remember the study, it predicted a shake out of private equity firms to the tune of 20% to 40%. I expressed mild skepticism over the study in a post aptly titled, Merry Christmas, Your Firm May Fail. But the question for panelists is, do you agree? Their answers may surprise you. John LeClaire of Goodwin Procter said "It is more provocative than necessary." Judging by the feedback I received on the previously mentioned blog post, many a deal pro would agree. Is it wishful thinking? Stefan Selig of Bank of America said rather bearishly,

David Lobel, the founder of middle market buyout firm Sentinel Capital Partners, is not going to turn his firm into a distressed debt house just because the assets look attractive right now. In comments made on a panel at today’s at the PEA conference, Lobel said his firm takes a different approach. Say a debtholder […]

As Dan, the Buyouts team, and myself embark on coverage of yet another private equity conference (Dow Jones' PEA) I've got a few leftover snippets and highlights from the last one (Wharton, which I attended on Friday). For one, I attended a GP panel, where I sat so far back that I couldn't even see who was speaking. The most notable comments were: Apollo hires two associates per year. Standard. Every year. "The movie that plays out (in the next year) is going to be great. It'll be like ‘Slumdog Milionaire.' We all get rich but have to go through a lot of shit before we get there." Another panelist chimes in: "More like "My Bloody Valentine." "The number of idle hands with good brains is extraordinary-the old rules of finance don't apply anymore." For two, I sat in on an LP panel conducted by David Snow, the editor of Private Equity International. Some blind quote highlights:

I'm at the PEA Conference at the Grand Hyatt in New York. The theme is "Where do we go from here?" which seems ironic, since that could have easily been the theme for the PEA Outlook conference in September. If you remember, that took place just days after the Lehman, Merrill and AIG disasters. It's probably safe to say little has improved since then. I'll be attending various panels and liveblogging two events: At 9:40, a one-on-one Q&A with Erik R. Hirsch, the Chief Investment Officer of Hamilton Lane. You can find that here. At 5:05, I'll liveblog a self-proclaimed "not-so-shy" panel called "Opinions, Opinions, Opinions." Isn't that all these conferences are in the first place? You can find that here.. I'll post updates in between on topics like Cleantech, financial services, portfolio company clean-up, and of course, Pontifications On The Future. I may also be commenting on the events at the official peHUB Twitter. Erik R. Hirsch, the Chief Investment Officer of Hamilton Lane.